Limits to Growth – Club of Rome
In 1972, the famous report Limits to Growth got published, causing a worldwide shock. Some 13 million copies were sold in 52 languages, 800,000 articles and studies followed and numerous quotes and references by politics, science, NGOs and industry can be found. The LtG focus is not on environment, as many think, but on Resources. The resource focus then was oil, gas, coal, phosphorus and a few other materials, forecasting their depletion before 2050. The underlying calculations were done using the so called World 3 Model (MIT Boston, 1970). In 2022, the next Review will be launched in a Vatican based event. Rome meets Rome.
The overall conclusion was that resource scarcity and pollution of ground, water and air will begin to have serious consequences for industrial output, food production and life expectation at the beginning of this century.
Current Status
The current World 7 Model is the latest advanced tool, enabling us to include most of the elements of the periodic system. It tells us that a long list of materials, all needed to mobilise the economy, are getting ever closer to their limits (see enclosed picture of estimated peak-production dates). A reality with serious consequences, that is not yet well understood by society, politicians, and leaders from companies and financial institutions.
World 7 is the baseline for the Resource Wende programme, named after the famous Energy Wende in Germany. Wende meaning: turn around. Not only the model’s materials, but the very physical environment is included in the Resource Wende, such as water, nature, space, health and the many conditions which mankind needs to survive. It is clear that all is meeting it’s zenith now. Reviews of all kind reveal that the limits are here and now.
CUTEC – Remondis
Based on a study by the ‘Clausthaler Umwelttechnik-Institut (CUTEC)’, Remondis has produced an infographic that shows for 14 raw materials:
- Until which year it is technically and economically feasible to explore the resources. Due to the remaining lower quality grades and as a consequence higher energy and financial requirements related to exploration, the economic lifetime of a reservoir is way shorter than the technical lifetime.
- To what extend these materials can be substituted or recycled. Due specific qualities of the original material and also scarcity of the alternatives, the opportunities for substitution are limited. Recycling opportunities are also limited due to the natural degradation of materials and costs involved in recycling.
Forreign Affairs
On the website of Forreign Affairs the relation between climate change, the energy transition, resource scarcity and geopolitics was described in a reveiling article:
- Cleaner and greener energy has been positioned as the panacea to reduce climate change and put an end to geopolitical tensions as caused by fossil fuels
- The move to these sources will, at least on the short term increase the dependency on more concentrated producers of scarce raw-material and as a consequence also increase geopolitical tensions and the likelihood of a war for resources.
- The growing reliance on and demand for energy, combined with the fluctuations of renewable energy sources, put secure energy supply at risk.
Given the above, it is not hard to imagine a situation where the current economic and welfare growth will outpace the energy and raw materials supply volumes. Current integrated assessment models show that this will cause an overshoot & collapse scenario: The more production volumes exceed planetery boundaries, the steeper the decline after peak production is reached.