Limits to Growth – Club of Rome
In 1972, the famous report Limits to Growth got published, causing a worldwide shock. Some 13 million copies were sold in 52 languages, 800,000 articles and studies followed and numerous quotes and references by politics, science, NGOs and industry can be found. The LtG focus is not on environment, as many think, but on Resources. The resource focus then was oil, gas, coal, phosphorus and a few other materials, forecasting their depletion before 2050. The underlying calculations were done using the so called World 3 Model (MIT Boston, 1970). In 2022, the next Review will be launched in a Vatican based event. Rome meets Rome.
The overall conclusion was that resource scarcity and pollution of ground, water and air will begin to have serious consequences for industrial output, food production and life expectation at the beginning of this century.
The current World 7 Model is the latest advanced tool, enabling us to include most of the elements of the periodic system. It tells us that a long list of materials, all needed to mobilise the economy, are getting ever closer to their limits (see enclosed picture of estimated peak-production dates). A reality with serious consequences, that is not yet well understood by society, politicians, and leaders from companies and financial institutions.
World 7 is the baseline for the Resource Wende programme, named after the famous Energy Wende in Germany. Wende meaning: turn around. Not only the model’s materials, but the very physical environment is included in the Resource Wende, such as water, nature, space, health and the many conditions which mankind needs to survive. It is clear that all is meeting it’s zenith now. Reviews of all kind reveal that the limits are here and now.
CUTEC – Remondis
Based on a study by the ‘Clausthaler Umwelttechnik-Institut (CUTEC)’, Remondis has produced an infographic that shows for 14 raw materials:
- Until which year it is technically and economically feasible to explore the resources. Due to the remaining lower quality grades and as a consequence higher energy and financial requirements related to exploration, the economic lifetime of a reservoir is way shorter than the technical lifetime.
- To what extend these materials can be substituted or recycled. Due specific qualities of the original material and also scarcity of the alternatives, the opportunities for substitution are limited. Recycling opportunities are also limited due to the natural degradation of materials and costs involved in recycling.
Harald Sverdrup is a professor at Norwegian and Iceland universities. He and his colleagues have devoted their life on scientifically calculating the scarcity of resources and modelling the consequences for economic growth, industry dynamics, energy- and food-production, society, population, health and wellbeing. The complex interrelations (illustratively shown here) are visualised using World 7 as a modelling tool. If you would like to know more about the outcome of the various studies, your really need to read his article in Geochemical Perspectives, volume 3, number 2, as published in October 2014. An update will follow in the near future. A shorter Dutch article from the P+ magazine (May 2020) is available here.
During one of the dialogues as conducted in November 2019, Sverdrup presented his work during a presentation. Below his final conclusions:
- A systemic approach is a condition for resolving the challenges:
- Sectorial appoaches are not sufficient, adjusting the parameters of the present system is insufficient;
- When society is materially circular, that creates a circular economy;
- Systemic changes need to be multi-sectorial, causally linked and pervasive:
- Energie-wende is linked to Resource-wende, which is linked to Social-wende;
- Rearranging the structure of the systems and resetting parameters, imply transformative changes to existing society and existing power-structures;
- Must involve all fundamental systems; industrial-, economic- and social dynamics;
- Unresolvable goal conflicts will lead to challenging choices that the citizen must be prepared for;
- Transformative changes take time:
- Plan with at least 20 years from start to implementation. Thus, the start is needed at once.